Daily Archive for November 11th, 2008

Inside the Numbers – Burns Offense, last 3 games

If somehow against all hope, rational and logic, we can keep trending positive and increase our offensive productivity, (or simply hold serve), while getting the defense to “unquit”, we can win these final two games. The key is getting the defense back to playing the way they were prior to the Vandy game. Can Rhodes motivate them and coordinate them at a high level? Can CTT motivate them? I sure don’t want to end the season with a couple of 42-7 type beatdowns. Now that Kodi Burns has settled in as the starting QB, I thought it would be interesting to see how much of a change he has made in the last 3 games….

Burns had a QB rating of 65.8 in the first 7 games of the season…
which has improved to 112.3 in the last 3 games.
In the first 7 games of the season, Auburn averaged 292.6 yards per game in total offense, which has improved to 368.7 yards in the last three.
AU converted 29% of its 3rd down conversions in the first 7 games and 50% in the last 3 games.
AU averaged 4.06 yards per play on 1st down in the first 7 games, which has improved to 5.13 in the last 3 games.
AU went “3 and out” 39% of the time on offense in the first 7 games, which has dropped to 22% in the last 3 games.
Auburn netted 21.1 yards per possession in the first 7 games, which has improved to 30.7 yards in the last 3 games.
During the first 97 offensive possessions in the first 7 games, Auburn gained at least 30-yards during a possession 27.8% of the time. In the last 3 games, AU has gained at least 30-yards in a possession, 50% of the time.
AU averaged a play of 30-yards or more every 53.4 snaps in the first 7 games, which has improved to 1 every 34.8 snaps in the last 3 games.

Kodi Burns by Downs:
During the first 7 games, Burns pass ratings by downs…
1st: 138.6
2nd: 15.6
3rd: 98.8

In the last 3 games as the fulltime starter…
1st: 140.1
2nd: 98.1
3rd: 103.9

In the last 3 games, 10 of his 14 completions on 3rd down has resulted in a first down and he has picked up an additional 7 by running the ball.

Leading Receivers in the last 3 games:
Tommy Trott: 11-99yds-0td
Chris Slaughter: 10-159yds-0td
Rod Smith: 6-71yds-0td
Tim Hawthorne: 4-65yds-0td

Runningback production in last 3 games:
Mario Fannin: 85yds-26-0td (2-22yds-0td)
Brad lester: 85yds-26-1td (1-16yds-1td)
Ben Tate: 82yds-20-1td (5-2yds-0td)
Eric Smith: 16yds-8-0td

That’s 268-yards on 80 carries from the running back position for 3.35 yards per carry. I see progress. We still need a prayer. WE BELIEVE. WAR DAMN EAGLE.